CBS'S CONCLUSION THAT THERE IS NO CONNECTION BETWEEN DISPLACED PEOPLE AND ALLOWANCE PARENTS IS WRONG

On what basis was this conclusion made?

Richard Gill. © Rob Voss

Professor Gill helped exonerate Lucia de B., and is now making a mince of the CBS report on the benefits affair

Top statistician Richard Gill cracks the investigation carried out by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) into the relocations of children of victims in the benefits affair. 'The conclusion that this group of parents was not hit harder than other parents should never have come to the conclusion that this group of parents was not hit harder than other parents. '

Carla van der Wal 26-01-23, 06:00 Latest update: 26-01-23, 08:10

I'd love to pick edible mushrooms in the woods, emeritus professor Richard Gill, and spend time with his grandchildren. Nevertheless, the top statistician in the Netherlands, who previously helped exonerate the wrongfully convicted Lucia de B, is now caught up in the benefits affair.

The CBS should never have started investigating the relocation of children of victims in the benefits affair, says Gill. ,, And CBS should never have come to the conclusion that this group of parents was not hit harder than other parents. It made many think: only the tax authorities have failed, but fortunately there is nothing wrong with youth care. So all that fuss about 'state abductions' was unnecessary.”

After the CBS calculated how many children of allowance parents were removed from home (in the end, it turned out to be 2,090), it seemed as if those affected in the affair lost their children more often than similar parents who were not victims. On November 1 last year, the results were presented, which Gill now denounces.

Gill is professor emeritus of mathematical statistics at Leiden University and has previously been a consultant at the CBS methodology department. In Lucia de B.'s case, he showed that calculations that would show that De B. had more deaths in her services were wrong.

CBS abuses

The fact that Gill is now getting stuck in the benefits affair has a special reason - but more about that later. First, about the CBS report. Gill states that CBS is not designed for this type of research and points out that after two research methods failed, only one “not ideal, but only option” remained. He also believes, among other things, that more severely affected victims in the benefits affair should be at the center of the investigation. He emphasises that relatively low-income families were most likely to have experienced far less drastic consequences. By the way, the CBS itself also says that it would like to use information about the degree of duress, but that there was none.

The CBS also acknowledges some points of criticism. “CBS itself has mentioned a number of comments to the report. There seems to be a misunderstanding at one point,” said a spokesperson, who also says that CBS still fully supports the conclusions. CBS will soon discuss the methodology used with Gill, but in any case, CBS sees itself as the right party to carry out the research. ,, CBS has the task of providing insight into social issues with reliable statistical information and data and has the necessary expertise and techniques. In this case, there was a clear social need for statistical insight.”

Gill thinks differently about this and thinks it's important to address that. Because he is awake to injustice. That was also a reason to offer his help when questions arose about the conviction of Lucia de B., who can simply be called Lucia de Berk again since her acquittal. In 2003, she was sentenced to life imprisonment.

Relocation

The acquittal in 2010 made Gill, in addition to being a top statistician, a beacon of hope for people who experienced injustice. And José Booij, the mother of a child removed from home, contacted him many years ago.

Somewhere in Gill's house in Apeldoorn, there is still a box of José's papers. It contains her diaries, newspaper clippings and diplomas. She was a little bit different from other people. A lawyer who liked women, fled the Randstad and settled in Drenthe. There she became pregnant and had a baby. And she had a neighbor, with whom she had a disagreement. “That neighbor had made all kinds of reports about José to the local police, had said that something terrible would happen to the child.” After six weeks, José's daughter was removed from home.

State kidnapping

“What happened to José at the time is also what I call a state kidnapping, just like the evictions among victims of the benefits affair are now called.” The woman continued to fight to get her child back. But gradually, that fight drove her crazy. She lost her job, she lost her home. She fled abroad. ,, Despite a judge's opinion that the child should return to José, that did not happen. José was eventually derailed. I now know that she left information with more people in the Netherlands to ensure that it is available to her daughter, when she is ready. But I couldn't find José anymore. I heard that she was still seen in the south of the Netherlands after escaping from a psychiatric clinic in England.”

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Victims in the benefits affair demonstrate. © ANP/ANP

So in the meantime, he keeps that box. And Gill thinks of José when he looks at the Central Bureau of Statistics research into the relocation of children of victims in the benefits affair. Gill makes mincemeat out of it. “The only thing CBS can say is that the results suggest that the differences between the two groups that were compared are quite small. There should be much more caution, and yet the summary contains bold summaries, such as: “Duress does not increase the risk of child protection measures”. I suspect that CBS has been pressured to do this research, or has wanted to justify its raison d'être. Perhaps there is an urge to be of service.”

Time for justice

Now it's time to rectify that, says Gill. Research needs to be done to see how things really work. ,, I had actually hoped that younger colleagues would have stood up by now who would take on these kinds of issues.” But as long as that doesn't happen, he'll do it himself. Maybe it's in his genes. It was Gill's mother - he was born in England - who, during the Second World War, helped crack the enigma code, used by the Germans to communicate. Gill was not surprised when he found out. He already had such a suspicion that his excellent mind was not only a legacy from his father, but also his mother.

Love

Nevertheless, it was ultimately his wife - love made him settle in the Netherlands - who set him on this track. She reminded Gill of Lucia de Berk's case and encouraged him to work on it. She may have regretted that once. For example, when Gill was recording The world goes on threatened to burn his Dutch passport if the De Berk case was not reviewed. “She said: you can't do that, can you?”

Actually, he would now like to enjoy his retirement with her - he has stopped his paid work for six years now. Then he would spend his days in the woods looking for edible mushrooms. And spending a lot of time with his grandkids. But now, his calculations also help exonerate other nurses. Last year, Daniela Poggiali was released in Italy after Gill and an Italian colleague interfered in the case. In England, there are still things waiting for him.

And the benefits affair is therefore here in the Netherlands, which, in Gill's opinion, needs more in-depth, thorough research to find out exactly what caused the evictions. “That's why I ended up with Pieter Omtzigt and Princess Laurentien, who are also dealing with the benefits affair.” Among the people who express themselves diplomatically, he would like to have the bad cop are, the man who shakes things up, like he did when he threatened to set fire to his passport. But at the same time, he also hopes that a young statistician will rise up who is willing to take over the torch.

The CBS provided this site with a detailed explanation, in response to Gill's criticism. It acknowledges the complexity of this type of research, but sees itself as the appropriate authority to carry out that research. The appointment to speak with Gill has already been scheduled. “In the reports, CBS always tries to explain as clearly and transparently as possible what was investigated, how it was done and what the results are.”

The CBS also points to nuances in the text of the report, for example after the sentence above a piece of text: “Patience does not increase the chance of child protection measures”. “There may be a relationship between duping and youth protection at an individual level, as stated in several places in the report.” Even if “on average, no evidence is found of a relationship between duping and youth protection,” as the CBS notes.

The CBS fully supports the investigation and the conclusions as stated in the report. However, it is pointed out that there are still options for follow-up research, as the CBS has also indicated.